S&P Global Ratings warns that a sustained rise in crude oil prices to $130 per barrel could significantly slow India's economic growth, weaken fiscal metrics, and strain corporate and banking sector performance, potentially reducing growth by up to 80 basis points.
The Indian rupee is highly vulnerable among Asian currencies, with Barclays and MUFG warning of a potential depreciation towards 100/$ if the West Asia conflict persists, driven by widening current account deficits and elevated crude oil prices.
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh, director, Delhi School of Economics.
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal announced that India expects to operationalise nine free trade agreements (FTAs) within the next 10 months, with plans for an additional three to four significant pacts over the coming year, reinforcing India's ambition to become a global manufacturing and investment hub.
India's leading passenger vehicle manufacturers are significantly increasing investments and factory capacities, alongside planning major product launches for FY27, driven by strong confidence in sustained domestic demand growth despite global geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks.
The government has sharply reduced excise duty on petrol to 3 and diesel to zero, offering major relief to consumers. Here's how the price cut will impact fuel rates and inflation.
S&P Global Ratings has increased India's GDP growth forecast for the next fiscal year to 7.1 per cent, citing private consumption, investment, and exports as key drivers. However, the agency also cautioned that the conflict in the Middle East could strain India's fiscal position due to higher energy prices.
'We should expect extreme heat, extreme rains, floods, landslides and maybe cyclones. Not just this year, in the coming year as well.'
Global oil prices have slumped and India has access to larger amounts of discounted Russian crude oil, yet refiners are not passing on their savings to consumers
The government on Thursday restored liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supplies to commercial consumers such as hotels, restaurants and other businesses to pre-crisis levels, and lifted sector-specific restrictions imposed during the recent West Asia conflict, in a sign that energy supply concerns are easing as global markets stabilise.
As India marks a decade of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the focus is shifting towards enhancing efficiency through artificial intelligence, data sharing, and process simplification. The reform, which unified India's indirect tax system, has significantly broadened the tax base and boosted revenues, with future plans including a streamlined two-tier rate structure and continued technological integration to reduce compliance costs and combat evasion.
'It will take a long time to recover from the impact of this war.'
State-run fuel retailers are losing about Rs 135 crore (Rs 1.35 billion) per day on sale of petrol, diesel, LPG and kerosene and the government is looking at proposals to make up for these losses, a senior official said.
Suzuki Motorcycle India Ltd (SMIPL) has revised its domestic two-wheeler sales growth estimate for FY27 downwards from 7-8 per cent, citing rising commodity costs due to the ongoing West Asia conflict and its impact on consumer affordability.
'Once the currency goes out of the hand, then possibly your major challenge is that it will not come back.'
'When we start describing somebody as an enemy that is the start of politics and emotion after which no business can take place.' 'We need to get out of this, allow Indian businessmen to do business with China.'
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed sharply higher, with the Sensex climbing 1,695.40 points and the Nifty surging nearly 2 per cent, driven by a global market rally and a decline in crude oil prices following US President Donald Trump's declaration that his country has ended the war with Iran.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged for restraint in the use of petro products due to the West Asia crisis, emphasising the need to save foreign exchange and reduce the impact of war. He also highlighted India's progress in solar power and ethanol blending, while assuring support to Telangana's development.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
Despite reporting a weaker-than-expected net loss of Rs 2,536 crore for Q4FY26, largely due to a significant non-cash forex loss, analysts remain optimistic about IndiGo's long-term prospects, citing strong demand trends, a favourable pricing outlook, and strategic cost-control measures.
The broader conflict in West Asia, the largest international market for Indian carriers, has forced a sharp reduction in daily flights relative to the summer schedule.
Tata Motors' MD and CEO, Girish Wagh, has identified rising diesel prices as the most significant threat to India's commercial vehicle (CV) industry recovery, despite the sector recently surpassing its pre-FY19 wholesale peak. Diesel costs account for 25-50% of a truck operator's total cost of ownership, making any increase a critical concern for fleet economics.
Nath's comments came amid the Congress party's continuous attack on Centre for the recent hike in commercial LPG cylinders and the Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF).
Indian stock markets experienced a significant sell-off, with the Sensex tumbling over 1,300 points, driven by escalating crude oil prices due to US-Iran tensions and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for austerity measures, which amplified investor concerns about India's economic outlook.
Moody's Ratings has highlighted that Indian banks are among the most exposed in the Asia-Pacific region to the West Asia crisis, primarily due to India's high dependence on energy imports, which could lead to increased inflation, higher interest rates, and strained borrower cash flows.
What could be more uncertain than Virat Kohli's agonising wait for a century for over two years? Perhaps it's what you will pay tomorrow morning to fill your vehicle's tank. Pump prices have joined cricket scores as the country's favourite discussion topic. Steep increases invite widespread protests, while moderate additions make the government anti-reformist. The ongoing fuel price conundrum is no different.
koda Auto Volkswagen India aims to capture a 5 per cent share of India's passenger vehicle market by 2030, driven by new product launches, including alternate fuel vehicles, and a potential entry into the high-volume sub-4 metre SUV segment.
India's manufacturing sector experienced a mild recovery in April, with the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 54.7 from 53.9 in March. However, inflationary pressures intensified, with input costs increasing at the fastest pace since August 2022, largely attributed to the Middle East conflict.
IndiGo, Air India, and SpiceJet are opposing the government's directive to offer 60% of seats for free selection, arguing it will lead to increased airfares to compensate for lost revenue.
Analysts warn that global markets are significantly underpricing the risk of an oil price shock, with Brent crude potentially soaring to $150 per barrel if the West Asia conflict escalates or damages critical oil and gas infrastructure. This could lead to severe inflation and economic repercussions, particularly for import-dependent nations like India.
India's manufacturing sector activity reached a three-month high in May, with the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 55.0, driven by robust domestic demand, infrastructure projects, and new business gains despite ongoing inflationary pressures.
The Indian government has increased import duties on gold and silver from 6 per cent to 15 per cent to curb inbound shipments of precious metals amid a rising import bill due to the West Asia crisis.
S&P Global Ratings projects India's economy to grow at 6.3 per cent even if crude oil prices average USD 130 per barrel in the current fiscal year, highlighting the nation's resilience amidst the West Asia crisis and strong commitment to fiscal consolidation.
India's wholesale price inflation (WPI) increased for the fourth consecutive month in February, reaching 2.13 per cent, primarily due to rising prices of food and manufactured goods, according to government data.
'If the war continue for a longer period of time, it is just a matter of time before the government will pass on some of the price increases.'
Tea planters in Darjeeling have raised that a shortage of commercial LPG, triggered by the ongoing conflict in West Asia, could hit tea processing during the first flush, the delicate early-season harvest that commands the highest premiums and often sets the tone for the year.
Airfares to Southeast Asia have surged 25 to 30 per cent, driven by high demand and limited airline seat capacity.
The United States has announced it will not renew sanctions exemptions for the purchase of Russian and Iranian oil, ending a 30-day waiver that allowed some countries, including India, to continue importing Russian oil despite sanctions related to the Ukraine war.
India's electric vehicle (EV) market experienced a significant surge in financial year 2025-26 (FY26), with e4W registrations nearly doubling and e2Ws growing by over 20%, propelled by expanding charging infrastructure, diverse model launches, and accessible financing.
